| The unclassified document that has been published1 is described as a “preliminary assessment” on UAPs by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (June 25, 2021). The US Senate, accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, had requested an intelligence assessment of the threat posed by unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and the progress made by the pertinent Department of Defense UAP Task Force set up in August 2020.
17 US agencies, including the Air Force, the Navy and the Army have provided input to the report. The first assumption is that
By Vicente-Juan Ballester Olmos
“Various forms of sensors that register UAP generally operate correctly and capture enough real data to allow initial assessments, but some UAP may be attributable to sensor anomalies.”
The 9-page report starts with an executive summary. It begins stating that “The limited amount of high-quality reporting on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions about the nature or intent of UAP.” As a result, the UAPTF concentrated its review on reports that occurred between November 2004 and March 2021. While “Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects…[and] In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics,” the report follows to say that “These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.”
The review of 144 reports insinuates that “when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin.” It fairly coincides with the findings of UFO research in the last decades: cases are explained by an array of solutions. No aliens whatsoever.
For the national Intelligence office, “UAPs clearly pose a safety of flight issue and may pose a challenge to U.S. national security,” in contradiction with 70 years of UFO phenomenology, with zero UFO-related air accidents and in the experience of so many countries which declassified their UFO records on the basis of UFOs not posing any danger to national security. The US Intelligence must, however, have serious reasons to think that some UAPs would potentially represent “foreign adversary collection platforms … or breakthrough … technology.”
The report lists needed steps for a sophisticated study of the issue, being “resource-intensive and would require additional investment.” This is translated as: if you want us to analyze this problem, please be prepared to pay for it. And this will not be Blue Book, or the Condon Committee. For sure, we are speaking of millions of US dollars, all in the name of national safety!
Main conclusions point to “reporting largely inconclusive,” however it is amazing the low score in identifying the nature and source of the objects. The Task Force investigators were only able to identify one reported UAP with high confidence (a deflating balloon), out of 144 (0.7%). The others remain unexplained. A lousy case resolution ratio, considering that French GEIPAN has solved 98% of UFO sighting in the last 10 years.2 I believe military UAP investigators must learn a lot from UFO investigation.
Nevertheless, the report guesses that “Some Potential Patterns Do Emerge.” In spite of the fact that “there was wide variability in the reports and the dataset is currently too limited to allow for detailed trend or pattern analysis,” it advances that there are some clustering of UAP observations regarding shape, size, and, particularly, propulsion. Diversity prevents pattern-recognition or not? Propulsion clusters? I believe it is fruit of reviewers imagination, not used to analyze pilots reporting exaggerations, or speculations. The only clear-cut cluster is that UAPs appear around U.S. training and testing grounds, “but we assess that this may result from a collection bias,” the report wisely asserts.
The report consigns reported unusual UAP movement pattern, remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, radio frequency energy associated with UAP sightings, acceleration or a degree of signature management, etc. Apparent features, we rush to add, as, like the report continues to state, “Additional rigorous analysis are necessary by multiple teams or groups of technical experts to determine the nature and validity of these data.“
As we have also concluded with the analysis of raw UFO reports 1947-2021, “The UAP documented in this limited dataset demonstrate an array of aerial behaviors, reinforcing the possibility there are multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations.” The Pentagon study today reveals lack of sufficient information in their dataset “to attribute incidents to specific explanations.” Nothing extraordinary has been found.
Their database includes 11 reports of documented instances in which pilots reported near misses with a UAP. Does it mean UAPs represent an “ongoing airborne concern”? With an airspace filled with flying objects, controlled and out-of-control, every drone or missile may be considered a hazard to aviators. This is out of the question with the ETH UFO enthusiasts promote. Concerning potential National Security challenges, it is up to the State to monitor if US adversaries are spying near military facilities or by aircraft carrying advanced sensor systems. Unrelated to ETI as well.
This report states that “explaining UAP will require analytic, collection and resource investment, “ inter-agency coordination, standardization of incident reporting across U.S. military services, Federal Aviation Administration robust input, and expand data collection from standard and novel areas. The bottom line is increase investment in R&D: “The UAPTF has indicated that additional funding for research and development could further the future study of the topics laid out in this report. Such investments should be guided by a UAP Collection Strategy, UAP R&D Technical Roadmap, and a UAP Program Plan.”
In summary, a new area of research seems to have been identified, as if it was not something being regularly pursued by Intelligence on a routine basis. With the public attraction to flying saucers, UFOs and UAPs, incoming financing is ensured. The US government is, again, studying UFOs. The XXI century Blue Book program is to be started. The media will rejoice. Science, probably less.
Apparently (according to Twitter), one classified version of this report has 70+ pages, 200 pages of annexes, plus 14 videos for ~40 minutes.3
(3) Laurent Chabin, communication to EuroUFO forum list, June 26, 2021.